(DailyEmailNews.com) – Highly regarded for his statistical work, election analyst Nate Silver revealed that this year’s presidential race is everything but a “toss-up.”
According to Silver’s model, which involves 40,000 simulations, former President Donald Trump has a 65.7% chance of reclaiming the White House, primarily through the Electoral College, where he is expected to receive 287 votes.
Silver noted, “The candidate who I honest-to-God think has a better chance (Trump) isn’t the candidate I’d rather have win (Biden). The presidential election isn’t a toss-up.”
He pointed out that the Electoral College/popular vote discrepancy seen in recent elections might again play a crucial role, especially if the popular vote remains nearly tied.
This prediction contrasts with the assessment from FiveThirtyEight, the analytics firm Silver founded and later left, which currently gives Biden a slight edge with a 51% chance of winning.
Silver’s analysis suggests Biden faces a tough challenge in battleground states that were key to his 2020 victory.
He highlighted that Biden would need to win all three of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania if he loses in Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, where he is currently trailing.
Reflecting on the predictive nature of his model, Silver wrote, “In our simulations, Biden wins at least one of these states 54[%] of the time. But he wins all three of them in only 32[%] of simulations. This is the sort of precision that a model can provide that your intuition really can’t.”
The analyst likened the 2024 race to the 2012 election in its dynamics, though with reversed roles for the parties in terms of swing state advantages.
Amid this analytical backdrop, recent polls indicate a shift in voter sentiments. A Quinnipiac University poll shows Trump leading Biden by 4 percentage points among registered voters, a change from last month when Biden led by a point.
This poll also highlighted voter opinions on legal issues facing both Trump and Hunter Biden.
A majority rejected a hypothetical Trump imprisonment related to his Manhattan case, while a slight majority felt Hunter should face prison on federal weapons charges.
As the candidates prepare for their upcoming debate in Atlanta, voter interest is high, though few are open to changing their preferences based on the debate’s outcomes.
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