Threatening one-fifth of the world’s daily oil supply and potentially sending gas prices soaring, Iran’s parliament has approved closing a key oil gateway.
The aggressive move comes in direct response to U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and could block $1 billion in daily oil shipments through this critical chokepoint.
Specifically, the parliamentary vote on closing the Strait of Hormuz represents a significant escalation in Middle East tensions.
However, experts note Iran’s parliament lacks the actual authority to implement such a closure as the final decision rests with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, not with lawmakers.
If carried out, this reckless action would effectively cut off a vital shipping lane through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply flows daily.
Commander in the Revolutionary Guards Email Kosari stated that Iran’s major escalation in response to U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities “will be done whenever necessary,” signaling potential future disruptions in global energy markets.
Closing the Strait would disrupt oil exports from multiple Middle Eastern countries, particularly impacting China, India, Japan, and South Korea.
For Americans, this would translate directly to pain at the pump and higher costs for goods transported using petroleum products.
“Without diplomatic concessions from Tehran, the front-month Brent crude oil price could open meaningfully above its $77.01/bbl Friday close,” ClearView Energy Partners said in a note.
Military experts warn that Iran might deploy multiple asymmetric warfare tactics to disrupt shipping, including naval mines, anti-ship missiles, swarm attacks, cyber operations, and sabotage.
These are similar to tactics used by Iran-backed Houthi terrorists who have repeatedly attacked commercial vessels in the Red Sea.
Despite the alarming threats, some analysts believe Iran may ultimately back down from actually closing the Strait.
“A move to close Hormuz would be an effective declaration of war against the Gulf states and the US,” said Eurasia senior analyst Gregory Brew, adding that “Iran in its weakened state is unlikely to seek escalation of that kind at this time.”
The strong American military presence in the region serves as a critical deterrent against Iranian aggression.
The U.S. Fifth Fleet, headquartered in Bahrain, maintains detailed operational plans to respond to any attempt to close this strategic waterway.
Middle East Forum Executive Director Gregg Roman offered reassurance that “any closure attempt would be temporary and ultimately self-destructive.”
“Iran depends on the strait for its own vital imports and knows that such action would trigger an overwhelming response from the US 5th Fleet, which maintains detailed operational plans for exactly this scenario,” he added.
Even if Iran stops short of a full closure, Americans should prepare for increased harassment of tanker traffic in the coming days, which could still impact global oil prices.
Iran previously demonstrated its willingness to disrupt traffic in the Persian Gulf by seizing a container ship, showing the regime’s continued attacks on international shipping.
